?Cleaning Your Plate? Won?t Solve World Hunger

All the attention that food loss and waste has received globally in the developed world is heartening. Major food companies, retailers, municipalities, governments, and individuals worldwide have launched programs to reduce food waste. Admirably, food pipelines have been developed to put potentially wasted food into the hands of hungry individuals in the developed world. My concern is, however, that this focus on saving food in the developed world will misguide us into thinking that we are effectively attacking world hunger. World Hunger Is On the RiseAfter steadily declining for over a decade, world hunger in developing countries is on the rise again according to a new edition of the annual United Nations report on world food security and nutrition. The United Nations’ report states that the overall number of hungry people in the world is 815 million that includes 520 million in Asia; 243 million in Africa; and 43 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. The share of the global population that is hungry is 11.7% in Asia; 20% in most of Africa (in eastern Africa, 33.9%); and 6.6% in Latin America and the Caribbean. We need to appreciate that over 98% of the world’s hungry people reside in the developing world, not the developed world. Telling our children “Clean Your Plate” is not going to impact on the 815 million people now hungry in developing countries and the millions of children at risk from malnutrition. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1037253/icode/ A horrendous reality is that every 3.6 seconds someone dies of hunger on earth. Even more appalling 75% of these individuals are children. As world hunger increases, children primarily bear the disastrous consequences. According to the United Nations 155 million children under 5 years of age suffer from stunted growth in developing counties because of malnutrition. Another 52 million children under 5 are affected by wasting (weight too low for their height). Setting Goals Won’t Reduce World HungerThe “Zero Hunger Challenge” was launched by the United Nations’ Secretary-General Ban Kimoon in 2012. His ambitious goal envisioned a world free of hunger by 2030. A multifaceted program was proposed to reduce world hunger based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of the United Nations. Subsequent to this the African Union Commission (AUC) and other international and national organizations have set goals toward reducing food losses and world hunger. In spite of all the well intended goals, world hunger is increasing. Driving increased world hunger is the world’s escalating population that is expected to reach 9.6 billion people by 2050. By remaining on our present path toward reducing world hunger we are going to fall far short of the food required to feed the world’s increasing population.  Global Warming and Other Added Pressures on Our Food SupplyNot only is our present course to reduce world hunger unsustainable, our food supply is also being further diminished by global warming, the increased consumption of animals over plants for protein, and increasing conflicts around the world. Global warming and agriculture are closely linked. If you include greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change and deforestation, as well as the processing, packaging, transport, and sale of agricultural products, estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture run from 43%-57%. On the other hand, agriculture is the one of the greatest victims of global warming caused by green house gas emissions. Because of this complex relationship it is difficult to predict the impact of global warming on crop yields, but we find predictions of 5-50% yield reductions depending on the crop and the geographic region. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/how-much-of-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions-come-fromagriculture-1782/  A Growing Middle Class in Developing CountriesAs developing countries acquire a larger middle class, individuals in these new societies obtain more of their protein from animals than plants. This further restricts our food supply because producing animal protein requires much more energy, water, and land than producing plant protein. World Hunger Impacts Both the Developed and Developing WorldAlthough individuals in developing countries, living on the margins of food security, will be impacted most severely by the world’s pending food shortage crisis, the developed world will be affected profoundly as well. As food become scarce, food prices soar, resulting in more people in developing countries being denied access to food. Food shortage crises in developing countries lead to political unrest and even terrorism. Uprisings during the Arab Spring that occurred in Egypt and Tunisia were thought to have been triggered by soaring food prices. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/world-july-dec11-food_09-07/   Choices in Increasing the World’s Food SupplyWe have two fundamental choices to increase the world’s food supply. We can produce more food or save more of the food that we already produce. The question becomes, “Which of these choices are the best investment of our agricultural dollars to meet this pending world food shortage crisis?” Presently, we are investing 95% of our agriculture dollars in the production of food while investing only 5% in food preservation. Even with our present investments of hundreds of millions of dollars in research and development to produce more food we are barely able to increase our crop yields a little over 1% per year. Since we are not going to meet this world food shortage by just producing more food, we clearly need another strategy.  In the past we were able to meet a similar global food shortage crisis during the “Green Revolution”, in the 1960’s and 70’s, by producing more food. This was accomplished by developing high-yielding crop varieties, more intensive agricultural practices, and expanded land cultivation. We were able to increase crop yields 3-5% per cent during the “Green Revolution.” Presently, even using our most advanced food production technologies, we can barely increase crop yields over 1% per year. This is going to leave us far short of the food that we will need by 2050 to feed the world’s ballooning population. A Second “Green Revolution"?Agribusiness and government organizations are launching a “Second Green Revolution” in order to produce more food to meet the “Zero Hunger Challenge.” Agribusiness sets the agricultural research and education agenda and it makes its profits through the sale of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides (production technologies). It sees little profit in the preservation of food once it is produced. In fact, agribusiness actually profits from food loss in that the food supply is reduced thus creating a demand to produce more food. Without Agribusiness participation, more pressure is placed on other organizations outside of agribusiness to mount initiatives to save more of the food that we already produce.  The World Food Preservation Center® LLC has met this challenge by launching the “Food Preservation Revolution™.”  http://www.worldfoodpreservationcenter.com/index.html Many questions have been raised also as to whether launching a “Second Green Revolution” is a sustainable approach toward meeting the present world food shortage crisis. The “First Green Revolution” while helping to meet the world’s increased demand for food left in its wake an agricultural system that was unsustainable. It involved significant environmental costs such as unsustainable groundwater extraction, fertilizer run-off, pesticide residues, and salinization. The “First Green Revolution” required expensive inputs of fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation water which were not available to small holder farmers that produce most of the food in developing countries. Since the “First Green Revolution” one-third of our agricultural land has had to be abandoned because of soil contamination, erosion, and lack of fertility. Also, over seventy percent of our ground water is used for agriculture globally. Heavy dependence on irrigation to increase crop yields during the “First Green Revolution” in some countries has resulted in the mining of this water at a much greater rate than it is being replenished. http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/05/economist-explains-11   Saving More of the Food that we Already ProduceOne-third of the food that the world produces already is lost between the time that it is harvested and consumed. This is enough food to feed over two billion hungry people annually. http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/mb060e/mb060e00.pdf Since we are not going to be able to feed the worlds exploding population by just mounting another “Green Revolution” it is important that we look at alternative strategies. Saving more of the food that we already produce is a compelling approach. Investments in postharvest infrastructure and research also make good economic sense. Harvested commodities have baked into them substantial investments in the cultivation, harvest, and processing of the crop. Therefore, a tremendous gain can be returned on investments in postharvest infrastructure and technologies. Such investments allow you to protect and realize a full return on investments already made in the production of food. A good example of this is the “Grain Cocoon” technology commercialized by GrainPro, Inc. Investments in this postharvest technology allows farmers to realize maximum return on their investment in grain production. Without investments in the “Cocoon” technology (below) a 100% loss would have been realized in  investments in the seed, cultivation, irrigation, pesticides, fertilizers, harvesting, and processing  of this grain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z82fbTKZqi0 As programs are initiated to reduce postharvest food loss in developing countries we are faced with critical postharvest “Skill Gaps” and “Technology Gaps.” These gaps have occurred because of our underinvestment in “postharvest educational capital” in developing countries. Alleviating these “gaps” is at the heart of the mission of the World Food Preservation Center® LLC. Student/scientists from developing countries are given a world-class education (M.S./Ph.D.) in the latest technologies for the postharvest preservation of food and they conduct research on much needed new technologies for food preservation. When these newly educated postharvest scientists return to their native countries they are able to establish independent postharvest research, education, and extension programs. Such programs will continue generationally through the students and farmers that they educate. Need for a Major Paradigm Shift in Our Agricultural InvestmentsMeeting the challenge of “Zero Hunger” and feeding the world’s rapidly expanding population sustainably requires a major paradigm shift in our agricultural investments. Since agribusiness at this point sees little profit in postharvest technologies to increase our food supply an added burden is placed on the rest of agriculture, particularly its agricultural higher education systems to accept this challenge. It is not only IMPORTANT that we do this. It is IMPERATIVE! Why are we losing the battle against World Hunger?The old adage “Know your enemy” holds true in our battle against world hunger. But, the enemy in this case “world hunger” is exceedingly difficult for us to know and understand. This is primarily because of the multiplicity of factors that cause and influence world hunger – too many factors for the human brain to comprehend and analyze. The complexity of the “Wicked Problem” presented by world hunger has to this point defied the human brains capability to grasp it. For the first time artificial Intelligence gives us the opportunity to consider and relate the numerous disparate factors that influence world hunger including population growth, global warming, political unrest, food safety, water, energy, cultural practices, and technology.  Big data on these factors can be assembled into a cognitive computer system analyzed. With this in mind, the World Food Preservation Center® LLC has developed “AGRI”, a cognitive computer system model, to attack world hunger and global warming. If implemented “AGRI” would allow us to answer such questions as: (1) With present policies can we expect world hunger to increase or decrease? (2) What policy changes are needed to reduce world hunger?; (3) What is the impact of global warming on world hunger?; (4) What is the impact of water availability on world hunger?; (5) What is the impact of the increased use of animal protein over plant protein on world hunger? Below is a proposal to build “AGRI”, a cognitive computer system to attack world hunger and global warming. https://www.dropbox.com/s/qzlxn3drt5avh3w/"AGRI" GENERAL PROPOSAL.ppsx?dl=0 ConclusionAmbassador Quinn has called the world’s present pending world food shortage crisis, “The single greatest challenge in human history”  (see the video below). Since our present food policies have resulted in increased world hunger for the first time in decades it is obvious that we are not on a sustainable path to solve this “Wicked Problem.”   Therefore, we must change our agricultural paradigm to invest more in food preservation as opposed to food production. Also, through the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) we can perhaps make more “intelligent” food policy decisions in the future and substantially reduce world hunger.