Feeding the Ten-Billion-Pound Elephant in the Room

Isolationism although espoused by some is not an intelligent nor survivable position for individuals, societies, or nations. Accelerated communication, transportation, and global trade have global interconnectedness exploding at a maddening pace. What happens in an isolated part of the world now becomes instant news and can have instant impact on our lives. Therefore, it is imperative we stay fully aware of global events as we plan our lives and as our governments set their policies. In planning for the future, a major concern should not only be “Climate Change” but also the “Ten-Billion-Pound Elephant in Our Room.” Recent studies by the United Nations have shown that population increases in developed countries are low and expected to stabilize. The more developed countries in Europe and North America, as well as Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, are growing by less than 1 percent annually. Population growth rates are negative in many European countries, including Russia (-0.5%), Estonia (-0.4%), Hungary (-0.3%), and Ukraine (-0.8%). If the growth rates in these countries continue to fall below zero, population size would slowly decline. So what’s the problem? The problem is the exponential population growth that is occurring in the less developed parts of the world primarily in Africa and Asia. Populations in these continents are expected to grow by one-quarter and expand the world’s population to 10 billion by 2050 (Fig. 1; see figures in the original document, by clicking here or link below). Although we in the developed world may not be concerned over our own population growth there is a “Ten-Billion-Pound Elephant in the Room” –– that is the population explosion that is occurring in developing countries. In case you are thinking “Not my problem!”, –– think again. The tremendous population explosion that is occurring in the developing world is having and will have profound effects on the lives of us fortunate enough to live in the developed world. The problems of starvation, ill health, migration, and war and conflict that accompany population growth are not just the developing world’s problems they are the developed world’s problems as well. For example, the uprisings that occurred in Egypt and Tunisia during the “Arab Spring” were thought to have been triggered by food shortages resulting from population growth. This demonstrates how closely bound “National Security” in developed countries is to population growth and “Food Security” in developing countries. The developed world needs to become heavily involved in addressing population growth in developing countries not just for humanitarian reasons, but for reasons of their own national security as well. As the developing world’s population explodes, we need to pay attention to where these new earth inhabitants will be living. The United Nations has estimated that 70% of the world’s expanding populations will be moving to cities. (Fig. 1). As urban populations expand rural populations are predicted to decrease. This places new demands on city planning in the future for developing countries. What is Different About the Present Food Crisis?A similar global food shortage crisis was successfully met in the 1960’s and 70's through the “Green Revolution.” Mass starvation was avoided by simply producing more food. Production acreages were expanded, more high-yielding crops were developed, and crop fertilization and irrigation were increased. Crop yields during the “Green Revolution” were increased by from 3.0-3.5% per year. Presently, even with all our advanced technologies we can barely increase crop yields by over 1% per year. What is different between now and the time of the “Green Revolution.?”  Multiple factors are increasing world hunger by shrinking our food supply (Figure 3). Since the “Green Revolution” the world has lost more than one-third of its cultivatable land through soil erosion, contamination, and loss of fertility. Seventy percent of the world’s ground water is used for agriculture. Increased irrigation during the “Green Revolution” took a heavy toll on the world’s ground water and in some developing countries this water is being mined at a greater rate than it is being replenished. Escalating war and conflict in developing countries is driving farmers off the land and into refugee camps. Climate change has now entered the scene and portends to greatly reduce crop yields. There are yield reduction estimates from climate change of from 5-70% depending on the crop and the geographic region. The demographic dynamic of the world’s new population is different now than it was during the “Green Revolution.” Although there has been a steady movement of people from rural areas to cities this process is greatly accelerating. It is estimated that 70% of new individuals, as we head toward 2050, will be living in cities (Fig. 1). Urbanization is further shrinking the food supply in developing countries and presenting special logistic problems in transporting food from where it is produced in rural areas to cities.   How Are We Going to Feed This Ten-Billion-Pound Elephant in the Room?Recent reports that world hunger is on the rise indicate that our present strategy to feed the world’s exploding population by just producing more food is not working. What alternatives do we have? The FAO and the World Bank have shown that one-third of the food that we already produce is lost between the time that it is harvested and consumed (Fig. 4). This is enough food to feed 2 billion hungry people a year. Why haven’t we taken advantage of this “low-hanging fruit” and saved more of the food that we already produce? In developing countries these postharvest losses often can be over 50% of the harvested Crop. A major reason that we are suffering these tremendous postharvest food losses is that we have invested a disproportionate amount of our agricultural resources in the production of food (95%) while investing only (5%) of our resources into food preservation. Saving substantial amounts of the food that we already produce requires that we change our agricultural investment paradigm and invest much more of our agricultural resources in food preservation. We need to fill the tremendous postharvest “skill gaps” and “technology gaps” that exists particularly in developing countries. The mission of the World Food Preservation Center®LLC is to fill these postharvest “skill gaps” and “technology gaps” that exist in developing countries.  Urbanization Causes Even Greater Postharvest Food LossesAt the same time that 70% of the world’s new population is moving into cities, farmers will be forced to move farther away from cities to find new land to grow food for this ballooning population. This means that the distance between where food is produced and consumed will greatly increase. Consequently, more postharvest food losses will occur along the food pipeline from where food is produced and consumed (Fig. 5). After harvest, food is transported along a food pipeline between the producer and the consumer. Developed countries are blessed with a cold chain that prevents food from spoiling while passing through this pipeline. Developing countries, because of poor power grids, have inadequate cold chains for the transport of food. Consequently, tremendous postharvest losses occur in leaks that occur in the food pipeline from where food is produced and consumed. Therefore, as this food pipeline is extended because of urbanization the postharvest loss of food increases as well (Fig. 6). Meeting the “Greatest Challenge Human Beings Have Ever Faced”  Ambassador Quinn, President of the World Food Prize, considers feeding the world’s exploding population the “Greatest challenge human beings have ever faced.” We must recognize the magnitude of this challenge and direct the intellectual might and financial resources that will be needed toward solving this “Wicked Problem.” One place where we can direct resources to substantially increase the world’s food supply and expect an obvious return is in the postharvest preservation of food. Limited studies have shown a 15-fold return on such investments. Perhaps the greatest resource that we need to direct toward the “Greatest challenge human beings have ever faced” is the human imagination. As stated by R. Buckminster Fuller “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” Feeding a “Ten-Billion-Pound Elephant in the Room” will require all the intellectual resources that we can muster to attack this problem. Please join the battle!  How About Eliminating the Food Pipeline Between Where Food is Produced and Consumed? Considerable advances are being made globally in urban or vertical agriculture. Growing food closer to where it is being consumed can eliminate most postharvest losses of food and provide fresher and more nutritious food to the consumer. Urban agriculture also eliminates the negative environmental impact that conventional agriculture imposes (Fig. 7). Cities in developing countries have large youth populations that are unemployed and under-educated. Urban agriculture can provide employment and educational opportunities for young people in cities, as well as, socialization opportunities for adults (Fig. 8).  Imaginative Architecture for Urban Farming in Developing CountriesFortunately, the human mind is at work in designing futuristic structures to grow plants in urban areas in developing countries. The structure below by two Polish architects is worth noting. They have designed a structure for growing plants that also contains a kindergarten and pharmacy and has drones that can deliver food to remote areas. “Floating farms” have been designed on which you can grow food on lakes and rivers near cities (Fig. 9). The Human Brain Could Use Some HelpWith world hunger on the rise, it is clear that our old model for feeding the world’s population is not sufficient. Also, multiple factors point toward world hunger getting even worse. To feed a “ten-billion-pound elephant” and take on the “Greatest challenge human beings have ever faced” the human brain could use some help. The complexities of all the factors that interact and contribute to world hunger such as climate change, population dynamics, war and conflict, economics, energy, water, politics, and urbanization are beyond a human brain’s ability to encompass and analyze. Fortunately, the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds promise that the human brain can find help in developing a strategy for effectively and sustainably attacking world hunger. Government leaders, agricultural administrators, and agricultural researchers need to know where to invest their limited time and resources to attack world hunger. Conceivably a Cognitive Computer System (AI) could assist man make more intelligent decisions relating to such questions as, “How will climate change impact on world hunger?”; “How is world conflict impacting on world hunger?”; “How are water shortages impacting on world hunger?” “What investments in reducing world hunger pay the best dividends?”; “On our present course is world hunger set to increase or decrease?” “What would be a good scenario for reducing world hunger?” The World Food Preservation Educational Foundation Corporation is proposing “AGRI™” a Cognitive Computer System (Fig. 10) to take on world hunger and assist man in this herculean task. Let´s all contribute what we can in the battle against world hunger; it is hard to think of a more noble cause. If you are interested in joining or becoming a sponsor of the WFPC or know someone that would  be interested, please contactCharles L. Wilson, Ph.D., FounderWorld Food Preservation Center® worldfoodpreservationcenter@frontier.comSource